Shifting Horizons

Ice-rivers curl
through time’s skin,
a slow unravel
held in the cloak of clouds –
stone-bodies linger,
their edges licked
by salt-dreams,
as sky-rivers press
against the boundaries
of distant dawns.
The air grows heavy,
stitched with water’s promise
of centuries stretched thin,
a storm-skein bends –
snow-cloaks rising
to shadow the loss.
The earth hums
its cold refrain,
a warning etched in frost-fire –
the weight of a thousand drops
might yet fail to hold
these frozen roots.

This poem is inspired by recent research, which has found that more snow could protect glaciers from melt – but only if we curb greenhouse gas emissions soon.

Glaciers around the world are rapidly shrinking, with two-thirds expected to disappear by the end of the century. This trend is driven by rising global temperatures, yet the behaviour of glaciers in maritime regions remains uncertain. In southern Patagonia, for example, increased snowfall since the 1980s has slowed glacier retreat, creating an unusual pattern compared to other parts of the world. However, it is unclear if this trend can persist as the planet continues to warm. Understanding how climate factors like precipitation and temperature interact to shape glacier change is critical to predicting their future and the implications for sea-level rise and ecosystems.

Researchers explored this question by simulating the history of three maritime glaciers in southern Patagonia over the past 6,000 years. Using a sophisticated ice-flow model informed by ancient glacial data, the study found that precipitation was the dominant force behind long-term glacier fluctuations, responsible for nearly 70% of their changes. Looking ahead, the results indicate that a significant increase in rainfall – up to 50% – would be needed to prevent these glaciers from shrinking further under the hottest climate scenarios. Without dramatic cuts in greenhouse gas emissions, the glaciers will face unprecedented conditions, where rising temperatures overwhelm any benefit from increased snowfall. However, if emissions are reduced, enhanced precipitation could stabilise these glaciers, offering a glimmer of hope for other maritime glaciers worldwide.